Scotiabank's analysts have issued their recent forecast for GBP/USD, which highlights the importance of the 1.2610 support level. According to Scotiabank, the sellers need to break the 1.2610 as it will open the doors to more weakness in the short term.
For now, the GBP/USD's momentum is still bullish & and the pair can be seen above the critical support zone. Despite these promising signs, the Pound/Dollar pair still faces significant downside risks.
Additionally, the intraday chart shows several patterns, suggesting that GBP selling is just around the corner. In the short-term & and even long-term, the DMI indicator highlights that the downside momentum will remain limited.
However, we still can't ignore the readings of the intraday chart, as it still shows that a test of the 1.2610 support is highly likely. If the GBP/USD successfully bounces back from this level, it would signify a resumption of the bullish trend.
While we focus on the technical indicators and the price patterns on the chart, it would be a bad strategy to ignore the GBP/USD fundamentals. From the CPI reading to the prospects of rate cuts by the BoE and the Fed, a lot can tilt the GBP/USD trend.
The next meeting of the Bank of England is in February, while the Fed's meeting is in March. So, in a sense, only January will offer some relative calm to the traders, while the next few months will be volatile.
Taking a closer look at Scotiabank's GBP forecast shows that the pair will lose around 100+ pips, give or take, in the short term. While we look at this forecast, the US CPI is also due, which could render it completely wrong. Also, a soft CPI reading will send the GBP flying on prospects of rate cuts in the USA.